How much hype can the pundits’ heap on the Packers? Depending on which talking head you listen to the Packers are Super Bowl bound or the team to beat in the NFC. I think that they will be good, but I am not willing to place them with either of those labels. Instead I view them as one of about 4 teams that will be pretty good in the NFC and have a chance to get to the Super Bowl.
Let’s start with the defense because this will be a huge question mark to start the season. Overall depth at cornerback with Al Harris coming off injury is a major concern. It is time for the likes of Pat Lee, Jarrett Bush and Brandon Underwood to show that they are more than Special Teamers. I am not too concerned about Bigby not signing yet, as I think draft pick Morgan Burnett will have better stats by the end of the year regardless. This kid was a steal in the 3rd round.
The loss of Johnny Jolly hurts the overall depth more than anything. I am not as sold on 2nd round pick Mike Neal as the Packers are. I think he will get quite a bit of playing time, but not sure if that is a good thing. I expect much more out of B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins this year. Ryan Picket will be his usual steady self. Justin Harrell could very likely be given his walking papers if his back flares up again. He might provide some depth if he could stay healthy, but I think it is a 100-1 shot that he does.
The strength of this defense is in the front 7 and the LB’s are a huge reason for that. The D-line does its job and eats up blockers allowing the LB’s to make plays. Matthews and Barnett will have similar numbers to last year, although Matthews may not have as many sacks. Brad Jones played well and should continue to growing into the position. A.J. Hawk will never live up to the hype placed on him coming out of college. He is a good 4th linebacker, but will never be the star many thought he would be. Brandon Chillar and Brady Poppinga provide solid depth, but one or 2 of the young guys will have to make a few plays when given the chance.
On offense there are 2 critical pieces and the 1st piece directly impacts the 2nd. Coach McCarthy needs to set starting 5 on the line early in camp and let them develop some chemistry. I start Clifton, Colledge, Spitz, Sitton and Tauscher, with 1st round pick Bulaga replacing Clifton when he gets hurt (because you know he will). How this unit performs will determine if the 2nd concern becomes an issue.
If the line is unstable again, then Rodgers is going to spend lots of time running for his life or on his back. If he goes down then, so do the Packers hopes. Flynn just does not pass as a capable backup. Rodgers should have a stellar season and my guess is he is in the top 5 in yards and TD’s. The weapons on the outside in Jennings, Driver, Jones and Nelson give the Packers depth. You add in the continued growth of Jermichael Finley and Spencer Havner and you have great options to throw to.
Depth at running back is adequate, but nothing stellar. Ryan Grant will get is 90 – 110 yards a game and have 1200 on the year. Brandon Jackson and Gregg Lumpkin will both get pushed by James Starks for playing time. Jackson will probably keep his 3rd down role with Lumpkin and Starks fighting to be the primary backup. The Packers will get enough from the running game to keep defenses honest and will lean on it when they build a lead.
The main sources of competition are the Cowboys, Saints and Vikings. I think Atlanta will also have a good year, but don’t think they are quite in the same realm as the other 4. The Vikings season hinges on Brent coming back, but we all know he will. Yes I know I misspelled his name. With Brent and Romo under center for the Vikings and Cowboys, both will choke in the playoffs just like in the past. So as I see it the main concerns are the Saints, injuries and the Packers reading the press clippings. The Packers will finish 10-6 or 11-5. Both will be good enough to get them to the playoffs and probably a home game or two. If they keep their heads on straight and stay relatively healthy (i.e. Rodgers is under center) then I think they will win 1 playoff game and have the chance to get to the Super Bowl.
This is my take on the upcoming season as training camp approaches.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Brewers Trade Deadline Thoughts
Let’s talk sports. The MLB trade deadline is only 3 days away, the NFL starts training camps this weekend and college football kicks off their camps shortly. Finally something to get excited about, as the whole World Cup passed by without watching more than 5 minutes total.
Do the Brewers blow up their hitters and focus on adding as many quality arms as possible now or do they ride the year out and try to remake themselves in the offseason? I don’t think there is any way they will trade Prince Fielder in the next 3 days. His value will be greater in the offseason when they would have a better chance of landing 2-3 young power arms.
Part of my concern with Prince is that I don’t see many people willing to take on his future contract demands. If the $200 million the Brewers offered is not enough then who will give him his big payday? The Yankees, Angels, Mets, Cardinals and Phillies all have 1st base covered for the foreseeable future. The Dodgers have a good one that lacks Fielders power. The intriguing option may be Boston. The Red Sox have Youkilis at 1st and Beltre at 3rd. Both are getting up there in years, so they may be willing to buy high. I doubt that the White Sox, Cubs, Rangers or Orioles (previous big spenders) would be willing to bite at his demands. Lastly, Prince won’t sign a contract knowing he will be a full-time DH from the beginning of the deal. It may happen later in the deal, but not starting it.
A lot of talk has centered on Corey Hart and the big year he is having. While I agree his trade value may never be higher I think the Brewers will regret trading him if they do. He is back performing at a level which many expected him to be at. He is a 25/25 guy for the next 5-7 yrs. He is a good defensive outfielder and by most accounts he wants to be a Brewer. That has to count for something.
Trading Hart is like trading Tony Gwynn Jr. in my opinion. They gave up on Gwynn without giving him a chance and got pretty much nothing for him. Had they kept Gwynn they could have traded Hardy for an arm instead of Gomez who has lots of talent, but nothing that says he will put it all together.
This runs counter to conventional wisdom, but I would trade a guy like Bush or Riske or Hawkins or Hoffman to teams needing pitching for the stretch run. I would also consider trading Counsell and Edmonds. Getting a young player in A or AA for any of those guys would be something I would jump at. Then promote another young guy from our farm and give them a chance. Our young players have had their ups and downs, but the experience they have gotten is invaluable and the rest of the year needs to have one eye on next.
I will have a post about the Packers and Badgers soon.
Do the Brewers blow up their hitters and focus on adding as many quality arms as possible now or do they ride the year out and try to remake themselves in the offseason? I don’t think there is any way they will trade Prince Fielder in the next 3 days. His value will be greater in the offseason when they would have a better chance of landing 2-3 young power arms.
Part of my concern with Prince is that I don’t see many people willing to take on his future contract demands. If the $200 million the Brewers offered is not enough then who will give him his big payday? The Yankees, Angels, Mets, Cardinals and Phillies all have 1st base covered for the foreseeable future. The Dodgers have a good one that lacks Fielders power. The intriguing option may be Boston. The Red Sox have Youkilis at 1st and Beltre at 3rd. Both are getting up there in years, so they may be willing to buy high. I doubt that the White Sox, Cubs, Rangers or Orioles (previous big spenders) would be willing to bite at his demands. Lastly, Prince won’t sign a contract knowing he will be a full-time DH from the beginning of the deal. It may happen later in the deal, but not starting it.
A lot of talk has centered on Corey Hart and the big year he is having. While I agree his trade value may never be higher I think the Brewers will regret trading him if they do. He is back performing at a level which many expected him to be at. He is a 25/25 guy for the next 5-7 yrs. He is a good defensive outfielder and by most accounts he wants to be a Brewer. That has to count for something.
Trading Hart is like trading Tony Gwynn Jr. in my opinion. They gave up on Gwynn without giving him a chance and got pretty much nothing for him. Had they kept Gwynn they could have traded Hardy for an arm instead of Gomez who has lots of talent, but nothing that says he will put it all together.
This runs counter to conventional wisdom, but I would trade a guy like Bush or Riske or Hawkins or Hoffman to teams needing pitching for the stretch run. I would also consider trading Counsell and Edmonds. Getting a young player in A or AA for any of those guys would be something I would jump at. Then promote another young guy from our farm and give them a chance. Our young players have had their ups and downs, but the experience they have gotten is invaluable and the rest of the year needs to have one eye on next.
I will have a post about the Packers and Badgers soon.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
R.I.P. Maggie
Yesterday I put down one of the most compassionate and trusting dogs to ever walk this earth. This post is not about how hard this was, but about what I have learned from this experience.
1. I learned how trusting Maggie was until the end.
2. I learned how a soon to be 9 yr old deals with the death of a pet that has been with her since the day she was born.
3. I learned how much Maggie touched the lives of our friends’ kids. Maggie was such a mellow dog that many of our friends kids learned how gentle dogs could be. She helped many kids over their fears of big dogs.
4. I learned that when I eat I always take bites in a manner that would leave the last bite for Maggie.
5. I learned that I don’t need to do this anymore.
6. I learned how strong my wife and daughter are in the face of a tough situation.
7. I learned that no matter how much I thought I was in control of the house that I was in fact last, behind Sydney, Maggie and Linda.
8. I learned how different it is to come home and not be greeted by all her excitement.
9. I learned how compassionate the vets are when they deliver bad news.
10. I learned that no matter how well you think you are prepared for this…you are not!
1. I learned how trusting Maggie was until the end.
2. I learned how a soon to be 9 yr old deals with the death of a pet that has been with her since the day she was born.
3. I learned how much Maggie touched the lives of our friends’ kids. Maggie was such a mellow dog that many of our friends kids learned how gentle dogs could be. She helped many kids over their fears of big dogs.
4. I learned that when I eat I always take bites in a manner that would leave the last bite for Maggie.
5. I learned that I don’t need to do this anymore.
6. I learned how strong my wife and daughter are in the face of a tough situation.
7. I learned that no matter how much I thought I was in control of the house that I was in fact last, behind Sydney, Maggie and Linda.
8. I learned how different it is to come home and not be greeted by all her excitement.
9. I learned how compassionate the vets are when they deliver bad news.
10. I learned that no matter how well you think you are prepared for this…you are not!
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