How much hype can the pundits’ heap on the Packers? Depending on which talking head you listen to the Packers are Super Bowl bound or the team to beat in the NFC. I think that they will be good, but I am not willing to place them with either of those labels. Instead I view them as one of about 4 teams that will be pretty good in the NFC and have a chance to get to the Super Bowl.
Let’s start with the defense because this will be a huge question mark to start the season. Overall depth at cornerback with Al Harris coming off injury is a major concern. It is time for the likes of Pat Lee, Jarrett Bush and Brandon Underwood to show that they are more than Special Teamers. I am not too concerned about Bigby not signing yet, as I think draft pick Morgan Burnett will have better stats by the end of the year regardless. This kid was a steal in the 3rd round.
The loss of Johnny Jolly hurts the overall depth more than anything. I am not as sold on 2nd round pick Mike Neal as the Packers are. I think he will get quite a bit of playing time, but not sure if that is a good thing. I expect much more out of B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins this year. Ryan Picket will be his usual steady self. Justin Harrell could very likely be given his walking papers if his back flares up again. He might provide some depth if he could stay healthy, but I think it is a 100-1 shot that he does.
The strength of this defense is in the front 7 and the LB’s are a huge reason for that. The D-line does its job and eats up blockers allowing the LB’s to make plays. Matthews and Barnett will have similar numbers to last year, although Matthews may not have as many sacks. Brad Jones played well and should continue to growing into the position. A.J. Hawk will never live up to the hype placed on him coming out of college. He is a good 4th linebacker, but will never be the star many thought he would be. Brandon Chillar and Brady Poppinga provide solid depth, but one or 2 of the young guys will have to make a few plays when given the chance.
On offense there are 2 critical pieces and the 1st piece directly impacts the 2nd. Coach McCarthy needs to set starting 5 on the line early in camp and let them develop some chemistry. I start Clifton, Colledge, Spitz, Sitton and Tauscher, with 1st round pick Bulaga replacing Clifton when he gets hurt (because you know he will). How this unit performs will determine if the 2nd concern becomes an issue.
If the line is unstable again, then Rodgers is going to spend lots of time running for his life or on his back. If he goes down then, so do the Packers hopes. Flynn just does not pass as a capable backup. Rodgers should have a stellar season and my guess is he is in the top 5 in yards and TD’s. The weapons on the outside in Jennings, Driver, Jones and Nelson give the Packers depth. You add in the continued growth of Jermichael Finley and Spencer Havner and you have great options to throw to.
Depth at running back is adequate, but nothing stellar. Ryan Grant will get is 90 – 110 yards a game and have 1200 on the year. Brandon Jackson and Gregg Lumpkin will both get pushed by James Starks for playing time. Jackson will probably keep his 3rd down role with Lumpkin and Starks fighting to be the primary backup. The Packers will get enough from the running game to keep defenses honest and will lean on it when they build a lead.
The main sources of competition are the Cowboys, Saints and Vikings. I think Atlanta will also have a good year, but don’t think they are quite in the same realm as the other 4. The Vikings season hinges on Brent coming back, but we all know he will. Yes I know I misspelled his name. With Brent and Romo under center for the Vikings and Cowboys, both will choke in the playoffs just like in the past. So as I see it the main concerns are the Saints, injuries and the Packers reading the press clippings. The Packers will finish 10-6 or 11-5. Both will be good enough to get them to the playoffs and probably a home game or two. If they keep their heads on straight and stay relatively healthy (i.e. Rodgers is under center) then I think they will win 1 playoff game and have the chance to get to the Super Bowl.
This is my take on the upcoming season as training camp approaches.
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I tend to agree with you, except for Ryan Grant. You're not too big on him either, but 90-110 is pretty generous in my mind. I have not been impressed with him, dispite his stats, and think he'll slow down to 50-70/game or about 800-900 total this season.
ReplyDeleteThe O-Line is just as important here, and when the line was weak last year, so were Grant's stats. The attention was on Rodgers (and getting sacked) at this time, but had Grant been the super back, Rodgers would have been much safer, from both Grant protecting him and defenses watching Grant. Plus, RBs take such a beating that just about all of them slow after 2-3 years.
If the passing game clicks like it did last year, Grant will get some extra time-killing yards, and a spread out defense against the pass is good for any running back. But in close games, or in bad weather, when teams will expect a run, I think Grant will let us down.
GO PACK!